Political Spinner

Israel’s new government is under the microscope: the world wants to know what will be Israel’s policy toward the Palestinians, the Arab World and Iran. With respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israel’s policy will be that of obfuscation, delay and ultimately denial. In fact, Israeli policy makers are currently able to see Iran and absolutely nothing else when they look out of their conceptual bunkers. It is a problem for Israel, and it will rapidly become the problem of the whole world.

With respect to Iran, Israel’s policy is clear and focused: Iran is viewed by many in Netanyahu’s government as an existential threat, which therefore requires (in their opinion) the focus of the world. The world, according to Netanyahu, should set a strict, observable timetable for discussion with Iran, move on to a universally agreed set of tough sanctions, and if discussions and sanctions fail, press on to a military action that will neutralize Iran’s nuclear ambitions, preferably by the U.S., but possibly by Israel.

Netanyahu’s policy with respect to a two-state solution (Israel-Palestine) is also known: He rejects it. The rejection may be coated with a sweet powder of patronizing platitudes, clichés and even some constructive-looking moves, but the core is unchanged: No Palestinian state next to Israel; at least not while there’s a chance for such a move to actually materialize.

Netanyahu’s government position with respect to a possible peace deal with Syria is also known: it will accept only a “Peace-for-Peace” formulation. But at this stage of the game, anything short of a full Israeli withdrawal from the annexed Golan Heights is a non-starter; the questions left to discuss are only timing, format and payback.

Israeli officials tell everybody that the government is working on a new policy, and they ask for time to formulate and frame a coherent policy. While normally, this is a quite reasonable request, in the current context, it is nothing but a sad joke. Here, Israeli officials are gearing up for a global-size con job. They are not working on a coherent policy, but on a fuzzy, incoherent, list of presentations, whose sole purpose is to stonewall, and buy time, while everybody does what Israel wants: focus on Iran.

America, and the rest of the world, should be unhappy about the dish that Israeli cooks are preparing for it. In the first place, it is clear that lack of movement on the Palestinian front feeds the Iranian’s overall hegemonic strategy, not only with respect to Israel but, more importantly, with respect to major Arab countries in the region (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Lebanon). Furthermore, it is quite clear that the window of opportunity for a “two state solution” is closing rapidly. Israeli strategists do not have a single constructive idea for a “Post two state solution” Middle East . They just do not want to think about it. They prefer to focus everything on Iran , and the rest be damned.

The Middle East, and the rest of the world will pay a dear price if it lets Israel divert attention from the need to decouple Israel and Palestine. It is quite unclear that this is a doable task at this point; what is abundantly clear is that in two or four year time, with Israeli continuing settlement activity, and with Palestinian despair, the task will be as close to impossible as can be. So while we all blame it on Iran, somebody should also pay attention to Israel.